Guild Richard E. The effect of target maneuvering on kill probability in air-to-air gunnery

Air Force Inst Of Tech Wright-Patterson, AFB, OH, School Of Engineering, 1972. — 126 p.A study was made to determine the effect of target maneuvering during projectile flight time on kill probability in air-to-air gunnery. The effect of target uncertainty was analyzed by comparing kill probabilities for a specified non-maneuvering target with kill probabilities for an average defensively maneuvering target. The kill probabilities were calculated using a mathematical model to approximate the gunnery attack. Firing conditions were parametrically varied from 500 to 3000 feet line of sight range and zero to 45 degrees angle-off. Two dissimilar rapid firing cannons are compared in the analysis. It was concluded that target uncertainty has no effect on kill probability when the time of flight is less than .5 seconds, but that it significantly affects kill probability when the time of flight is greater than .8 seconds. It was also concluded, that for air-to-air gunnery, the ballistic dispersion of rapid firing cannons should be such that 80 percent of the rounds are within a circle of nine to ten mils diameter.