Models, data, and war: a critique of the foundation for defense analyses

General Accounting Office, Washington, DC, Program Analysis Div, 1980. — 153 p.A prominent feature of modern Government is the extent to which the executive branch has institutionalized quantitative methodology (cost-effectiveness analysis, computer modeling, etc.) as an aspect of budgeting and decision-making. Proponents term this 'scientific management,' and view it as a salutary extension of the 'objective' tools of science and mathematics. This argument has substantial merit, but it obscures the fact that quantitative methodology has considerable potential in both scientific (or 'objective') and 'subjective' applications. The difference, whether an application is based on scientific fact or 'quantified judgment', has obvious importance in the context of decision making. This report examines the nature of quantitative methods (cost-effectiveness analysis, computer modeling, etc.) and some of the problems in their use for the analysis of public policy issues.