Gay Jason W. Aircraft evaluation using stochastic duels

Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2017. — 131 p.Our thesis presents a modeling paradigm that uses stochastic duels to evaluate the performance of fighter aircraft in one-on-one air combats. The main thrust distinguishing our work is the combination of stochastic models, kinematics, and flight theories to represent the dynamics of a one-on-one air duel between two opposing fighter aircraft. We consider the duel in two phases, starting from a beyond-visual-range engagement to a close-range dogfight. The main contribution of our research is a stochastic model that directly relates physical characteristics of the two aircraft to compute their mission-level performance. The model is able to capture sufficient fidelity of the air duel without losing its analytical tractability. We illustrate our model using a numerical example featuring two actual dissimilar fighter aircraft, followed by a sensitivity analysis using smart experimental design methods. Our analysis reveals that the engagement time at beyond-visual range, single shot kill probability, aircraft velocity, flight velocity during a dogfight, and the maximum load factor of an aircraft are influential in determining the win probability of each aircraft in an air duel.