Skliris E. An expected value air combat model simulation algorithm to predict missions performance in tactical air operations

Naval Postgraduate School. — Monterey, California, 1983. — 220 p.This thesis intends to create the basic conceptual background for a nonexpert analyst so as to be able to follow the logic, structure, development, and utility of an Air Combat Model, using the digital computer. Initially the reader will be introduced to the concepts, methods and present constraints of Modeling and Simulation focused on Air Operations. Then the thesis will demonstrate a basic application of an air combat model simulation algorithm called 'ICARUS'. The model developed in this study is a highly aggregated Theater-Level model which utilizes the allocation of aircraft in various missions on a daily basis to obtain the outcome of an offensive versus defensive systems engagement. The simulation algorithm which supports the model consists of an air portion including a limited number of factors to accomplish the main objective--to give insight capabilities to a non-expert reader.