Schupbach J.N. Bayesianism and Scientific Reasoning

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2022. — 128 p.This Element explores the Bayesian approach to the logic and epistemology of scientific reasoning. Section 1 introduces the probability calculus as an appealing generalization of classical logic for uncertain reasoning. Section 2 explores some of the vast terrain of Bayesian epistemology. Three epistemological postulates suggested by Thomas Bayes in his seminal work guide the exploration. This section discusses modern developments and defenses of these postulates as well as some important criticisms and complications that lie in wait for the Bayesian epistemologist. Section 3 applies the formal tools and principles of the first two sections to a handful of topics in the epistemology of scientific reasoning: confirmation, explanatory reasoning, evidential diversity and robustness analysis, hypothesis competition, and Ockham's Razor.Probability Theory, a Logic of Consistency
Logic and Uncertainty
From Deductive Logic to Probability Theory
A Primer on Probability
Dartboard Representations
Revisiting the Basic Rules
Other Rules of Probability
A Logic of Confidences
A Subject with No Object?
Consistency of Confidences
Toward a Positive Defense
Bayesian Epistemology
Bayes and Bayesian Epistemology
Bayes’s Rule
Interlude: Updating Imprecise Confidences
Complications and Generalizations
Epistemology and Convergence
Calibration
Calibration and Relative Frequency
Calibration and Objective Chance
Discussion
Insufficient Reason
Bertrand’s Paradox
Invariance
MAXENT
Scientific Reasoning
Confirmation
Explanatory Reasoning
Peirce and Power
Measuring Explanatory Power
Inference to the Best (ie, Most Powerful) Explanation
Robustness Analysis
RA-Diversity and Explanatory Discrimination
Interlude: Hypothesis Competition and Defeat
A Bayesian Evaluation of Robustness Analysis
Mutually Exclusive Competitors
Consistent Epistemic Competitors
Simplicity and Evidential Fit
A Bayesian Approach to Simplicity and Fit
Striking a Balance
Application