Goodarzi E., Ziaei M., Shui L.T. Introduction to Risk and Uncertainty in Hydrosystem Engineering

Springer Science, Business Media Dordrecht, 2013, XIII, 157 p. 54 illus., 15 illus. in color. — ISBN: 978-94-007-5850-6, ISBN: 978-94-007-5851-3 (eBook), DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-5851-3.One-stop resource
Sets the scene for the near future
Most risk and uncertainty studies on hydrosystem engineering (1967 to 2012) are presented in the book’s Appendix in table format
Water engineers require knowledge of stochastic, frequency concepts, uncertainty analysis, risk assessment, and the processes that predict unexpected events.This book presents the basics of stochastic, risk and uncertainty analysis, and random sampling techniques in conjunction with straightforward examples which are solved step by step. In addition, appropriate Excel functions are included as an alternative to solve the examples, and two real case studies is presented in the last chapters of book.Basic ConceptsHydrosystem
Risk and Reliability
Risk Assessment and Management
Uncertainty
Purpose of Uncertainty Analysis
Measurement of Risk and UncertaintyProbability TheoriesReview of Probability Theory
Probability Concepts
Random Variables
Moments of Distribution
Estimate Moments From Data Series
Two Random Variables
Commonly Used Probability Distributions in Hydrosystem Engineering
Binomial Distribution
Poisson Distribution
Normal Distribution
Log-Normal Distribution
Exponential Distribution
Gamma Distribution
Beta Distribution
Uniform DistributionRisk and Uncertainty AnalysisBasic Concept of Uncertainty
Uncertainty Analysis
Analytical Techniques
Basic Concepts of Risk and Reliability
Safety Factor and Safety Margin
Performance Function
Reliability Index
First-Order Second-Moment Method
Mean-Value First-Order Second-Moment Method
Probabilistic Point Estimation Methods
Rosenblueth’s Point Estimation Method
Bivariate RPEM
Reliability Analysis of Complex System
Event-Tree
Fault-TreeMonte Carlo SimulationBasics of Monte Carlo Simulation
Generation of Random Numbers
CDF-inverse Method (Continuous Case)
Acceptance-Rejection Method
Generation Random Variates from Probability Distributions
Normal Distribution
Lognormal Distribution
Exponential Distribution
Monte Carlo Integration
One-Dimensional Monte Carlo Integration
Two-Dimensional Monte Carlo Integration
Hit-and-Miss Method
Variance-Reduction TechniquesEvaluation of Dam Overtopping Risk Based on Univariate Frequency AnalysisDam Risk Model
Risk Modeling for Flood and Wind Overtopping
Reservoir Routing
Wind Model
Uncertainty Analysis
Monte Carlo Simulation
Latin Hypercube Sampling
Overtopping Risk for an Existing Dam
Study Area and Data Collection
Flood Frequency Analysis
Wind Frequency Analysis
Uncertain Variables
Overtopping Risk Due to Different Floods
Overtopping Risk Due to Flood and Wind
Conclusions
Future StudiesEvaluation of Dam Overtopping Risk Based on Univariate and Bivariate Flood Frequency AnalysesBivariate Frequency Analysis
Reservoir Routing Analysis
Risk and Uncertainty Analysis
Case Study
Outlier Test
Determination of Uncertainty Factors
Univariate Flood Frequency Analysis
Bivariate Flood Frequency Analysis
Overtopping Risk Based on Univariate Flood Frequency
Overtopping Risk Based on Bivariate Flood FrequencyAppendix A
Appendix B
Appendix C